In recent developments, Bitcoin has experienced a 26% drop from its all-time high for this cycle, plunging market sentiment into "extreme fear." However, the broader perspective provided by global liquidity trends offers a reassuring outlook amidst this volatility. The relationship between Bitcoin and global liquidity is significant, with long-term correlations suggesting that Bitcoin's price movements are closely tied to the availability of money and credit in the international financial system. This article delves into how global liquidity influences Bitcoin's performance and what this means for investors.
Global liquidity, defined as the overall availability of money and credit across international financial markets, plays a crucial role in shaping asset prices. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), People’s Bank of China (PBoC), and Bank of Japan (BoJ), influence these conditions through interest rates and monetary policies. A common metric used to gauge global liquidity is Global M2, which encompasses various forms of readily available funds such as cash, deposits, and short-term investments denominated in U.S. dollars.
The correlation between Bitcoin's price and global liquidity is particularly strong over the long term, with a 0.94 correlation observed over several years. Shorter-term variations can be influenced by specific market events or internal liquidity dynamics within the Bitcoin ecosystem. For instance, Bitcoin's halving cycle, where miners' rewards are halved every four years, tends to drive market enthusiasm and subsequent corrections. Additionally, metrics like the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio provide insights into Bitcoin's valuation relative to historical acquisition costs, signaling potential overvaluation or undervaluation.
Historically, periods of rapid global liquidity expansion have aligned with Bitcoin bull markets. Data shows that the year-over-year growth rate of global M2 has had a strong correlation with Bitcoin's price. However, there have been instances where this correlation weakened due to significant industry or global events, such as the ICO bubble burst, the COVID-19 sell-off, or the Terra/Luna collapse. During these times, internal market dynamics—such as profit-taking and panic selling—become more influential than broader liquidity conditions.
Looking ahead, continued global liquidity expansion suggests a positive outlook for Bitcoin. Since early 2025, global M2 has grown by 3.8%, indicating potential support for Bitcoin's price. Major liquidity shifts typically impact Bitcoin's value within about 60 days, suggesting that we might see a bottoming out by April. Moreover, with Bitcoin's current MVRV Z-score remaining neutral, there is room for further price appreciation before reaching historical valuation extremes. Investors should keep an eye on central bank policies and liquidity injections, as these factors will continue to shape Bitcoin's trajectory.
The Colorado House has taken a significant step towards addressing the financial burden on residents by advancing a bill aimed at eliminating deceptive fees. The legislation, championed by Representatives Emily Sirota and Naquetta Ricks, seeks to ensure that consumers are fully aware of all costs associated with goods, services, or properties before making purchases or commitments. This initiative is part of a broader effort to combat rising living expenses and provide greater transparency in pricing.
One of the primary concerns highlighted by the representatives is the prevalence of hidden charges that significantly inflate monthly expenditures for many households. These fees, often referred to as "junk fees," can accumulate to substantial amounts over time, placing an undue strain on family budgets. Representative Sirota emphasized that these fees are frequently disguised under various names but ultimately serve to increase corporate profits at the expense of hardworking individuals. By requiring full disclosure of prices upfront, the bill aims to empower consumers to make informed decisions that align with their financial needs.
The proposed measures would enhance price transparency by prohibiting misleading advertising practices and mandating clear communication of all mandatory fees. Additionally, landlords would be restricted from imposing excessive charges for utilities and third-party services, ensuring that tenants are not subjected to unexpected costs. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has also expressed support for this legislative action, recognizing its potential to protect consumers from deceptive business practices. Ultimately, this bill represents a critical step toward creating a fairer and more transparent economic environment for all Coloradans.